Mohsen Abbasnia; Taqi Tavousi; Mahmood Khosravi; Toros Hossein
Abstract
Recognizing and evaluating the climate changes in the coming decades is absolutely necessary for the purpose of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects. In this research, the SDSM model was successfully calibrated and validated (1981-2010) tocomparatively analyze ...
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Recognizing and evaluating the climate changes in the coming decades is absolutely necessary for the purpose of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects. In this research, the SDSM model was successfully calibrated and validated (1981-2010) tocomparatively analyze and explore the future maximum daily temperature variations over Iran forthe two future periods of (2041-70 and 2071-99) and based on the output of two general circulation models of atmosphere, namely, Hadcm3 and CGCM3 under the existing emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, B2), relative to the baseline period of 1981-2010. In other words, with regard to the uncertainty for the maximum daily temperature of the future data, downscaling was performed in 7 synoptic stations as the climatic representatives of Iran. Analysis of the output uncertainty showed that CGCM3 model under the B1 scenario among all different models-scenarios has had the best performance in simulating the future temperature. Also, the findings of the research on the studied stations indicate that the temperature in Iran in the middle and final decades of the 21st century increases in averagebetween 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, which based on different scenarios of the Hadcm3 model, this temperature increase has been higher compared to the CGCM3 model. In terms of spatial dispersion of the changes in the GIS environment based on the output of all scenario-models, the lowest temperature increase was observed at Bandar Abbas station located on the south lowland coast of Iran, and on the contrary, the temperature rise reaches the maximumat the Tabriz station located onthe northern latitudes and highland and mountainous regions of Iran. In total, the important and effective factors in the future changes of Iran's temperature can be classified into three groups: factors of altitude, latitude and atmospheric humidity, because, based on all the outputs of model-scenarios, the stations located on the northern latitude elevations of Iran will experience the highest temperature rise compared to the stations located on low-altitude and adjacent to the southern coast of Iran.
